domingo, 24 de junho de 2018

O senhor ex-Microsoft, a NASA e as estimativas erradas?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jun/24/nathan-myhrvold-inventor-microsoft-patent-nasa-asteroid-data-pizza-science

Citando:
"Nasa’s Wise space telescope [Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer] measured the asteroids in four different wavelengths in the infrared. My main beef is with how they analysed that data. What I think happened is they made some poor choices of statistical methods. Then, to cover that up, they didn’t publish a lot of the information that would help someone else replicate it. I’m afraid they have both over- and underestimated. The effect changes depending on the size of the asteroid and what it’s made of. The studies were advertised as being accurate to plus or minus 10%. In fact, it is more like 30-35%. That’s if you look overall. If you look at specific subsets some of them are off by more than 100%. It’s kind of a mess."

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